The Waive and Stretch: Suns Decision On Chris Paul, Free Agent Class, Extension Eligible Veterans, And More
Welcome back to another edition of The Waive and Stretch Newsletter. A quick shameless plug to note that I am looking to work in basketball in any capacity and would love to connect with anyone in the industry or trying to break in. Please feel free to share this Substack with anyone who might find it interesting. Let's get into it!
What Caught My Attention This Week
What Are The Suns Going To Do With Chris Paul
On Wednesday, there were multiple reports revolving around Chris Paul’s future with the Phoenix Suns. First, it was reported by Chris Haynes of Bleacher Report that Paul will be waived, as his contract is only guaranteed for $15.8 million of the $30.8 million salary for this upcoming season. However, then Shams Charania reported that the Suns were still weighing their options with regards to their decision on Paul’s future. Adrian Wojnarowski echoed that sentiment, with the added nuggets that Paul does want to remain with the Suns, but also wants a decision to be made quickly to gain clarity on his free agency status. I wanted to take a look at what the four options Phoenix has with Paul (waive, waive and stretch, trade, keep on roster) and what each options provides for the team.
Waive Without Stretching
This option would leave the Suns with just enough wiggle room to use the $5 million taxpayer MLE and stay under the second apron while retaining Torrey Craig and Jock Landale and filling out the roster on minimums. They could also bring back Chris Paul if he were willing to come back on a minimum deal. While this does keep the team below the second apron, With the main benefit there still being able to be a buyout market team, I don’t believe this is the best option available to the team with regards to what to do with Paul’s contract. Especially if Paul is not interested in returning to Phoenix on a minimum deal. You are going to really have to hit with that TMLE in order to be as good or a better team than last year.
Waive and Stretch
I am very excited to write about a possible waive and stretch transaction on The Waive And Stretch Newsletter. The Suns are able to waive and stretch Paul’s cap hit so that it is a $3.16 million hit over five years as opposed to $15.8 all in one year. This would free up enough room where the team could use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE ($12.2 million) and Bi-Annual Exception ($4.4 million), possibly retain Torrey Craig, while filling out the roster with minimums and stay under the first apron. This would come at the cost of Chris Paul however, as he would not be able to re-sign with the team if his dead cap is stretched.
Trade
The Suns are still able trade Chris Paul. For trade purposes that occur after the season ends but before the new salary cap year, the lesser of a player’s current year salary and guaranteed base portion of next year’s salary is used to determine outgoing salary in any trade. Therefore, Paul can count as anywhere between $15.8 million to $28.4 million in a trade prior to his guarantee date of June 28th. This gives the Suns some flexibility in terms of players they could target in a potential deal. However, they may lack the draft assets to entice other teams to take on Paul’s cap hit unless they are taking back long-term money. Additionally, Phoenix lacks the leverage in any deal where a team would want to take on Paul at his full amount to play for them next year, as it seems likely Phoenix will just waive him if they can’t find a trade partner. Say they were able to trade Paul at the $15.8 million cap number and brought someone in at or under that amount, they could still use the TMLE and retain Torrey Craig and Jock Landale while remaining under the second apron.
Keep Him
Probably the most unlikely of all the scenarios, but the Suns could just guarantee Paul’s salary for next year and keep him on the roster. The team would likely cross the second apron threshold when filling out the roster, losing access to the TMLE and not being able to sign players who were bought out during the season that made more than the NTMLE. They would be in line for a hefty tax bill as well. But the team could see how much he still has in the tank, and could still trade him up to the deadline, as he would effectively be a massive expiring salary.
Three Things To Keep An Eye On This Offseason
1. The Upcoming Free Agency Class
On my site Ducking The Tax, I’ve added a page where you can see the 2023 free agents, with some projected based on decisions that will be made on options for next year. You can also see what their EPV is for the 2023/2024 season, and that value expressed as a percentage of the salary cap. Feel free to check it out here.
2. Veteran Extension Eligible Players
Similar to the rookie scale extension eligible players that were added to the website, I’ve also added a page where you can see which players will be eligible for a veteran extension. You can also see how that player’s max extension first year amount compares to their EPV in that first year of any extension. You can also see how many years a player has until an extension would kick in. Feel free to check it out here.
3. Tax Teams Acquiring Cheap Contracts
Adrian Wojnarowski reported Friday that the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder have completed an all picks trade, the details of which you can see below.
For OKC, this deal helps consolidate their treasure trove of draft picks into a well-educated bet on a potentially valuable first round pick down the line. Additionally, it helps them a bit with their roster-crunch heading into the 2023-2024 season that I’ve discussed previously. For the Nuggets, they are able to pick up some additional draft capital that they can use to add cheap, cost-controlled, young talent to this roster. It seems they are already preparing for the new CBA changes with this move, where adding outside talent to your roster has gotten much more difficult for big spenders. This gives the team multiple chances over the next two drafts to rotation level talent to the roster on cheap deals. I would bet this won’t be the last time we see a deal like this from teams that are staring down a future of battling against the ramifications of crossing the first and second apron thresholds.
Fake Signing Of The Week
Player: Torrey Craig
Team: Phoenix Suns
Deal: 2 Years, $16 million
The Phoenix Suns do not have a lot of avenues to add talent this offseason. As we walked through up top, what they do with Chris Paul will drive what tools they will have at their disposal to add players to their roster. Regardless, it would seem that the team basically has to bring back Craig next year, as they have his early bird rights. If only just to have another contract that can be used in trades. But Craig was a very solid rotation player, filling in as a starter when called upon and was pivotal in the Suns’ first round series win over the Clippers. Craig’s representation should hold some leverage over the team in negotiations for a new deal this offseason.