The Waive and Stretch: Questions After The Lottery Results, OKC Roster Spot Crunch, Cap Space Update And More
Welcome back to another edition of The Waive and Stretch Newsletter. A quick shameless plug to note that I am looking to work in basketball in any capacity and would love to connect with anyone in the industry or trying to break in. Please feel free to share this Substack with anyone who might find it interesting. Let's get into it!
What Caught My Attention This Week
The Draft Order Is Set…. For Now
With the Lottery behind us, we now know that Victor Wembanyama will be a San Antonio Spur. After that though, this draft is full of questions. I’ve compiled some of the key ones below that stick out to me.
How Fast Does San Antonio Build Around Wembanyama?
The Spurs won the lottery of all lotteries. Now, they have to put a roster around Victor Wembanyama. Do they slow roll it and continue to build through the draft? Or should they try to compete immediately and utilize their cap space and draft capital to bring in veteran talent? This is the current dilemma facing the franchise, but boy what a good dilemma to have.Who Goes Second To Charlotte?
The Charlotte Hornets came up just short of winning the Wemby sweepstakes, but they still get a nice consolation prize in the 2nd overall pick. The question is, does the team go with Brandon Miller or Scoot Henderson, the consensus top two non-French prospects in the draft. The presence of LaMelo Ball on the roster could mean that Charlotte would lean towards Miller, but pairing Ball with Henderson doesn’t seem like a bad idea either. Either way, it would appear the draft starts at two.Who Trades With Portland For The Third Pick?
The Blazers are committed to building around Damian Lillard, and Lillard is not in favor of a youth movement. This would imply that the third pick of the Draft is up for grabs in exchange for veteran talent, which was also reported by Chris Haynes. What teams could be in the market for the pick? Possibly Toronto, if they are looking to move Pascal Siakam. Could Utah sell high on Lauri Markkanen? Chicago and Washington both have stars on big money deals, though the third pick seems a bit rich to me.Just How Many Picks Will Be On The Move?
There might be a lot of first round picks on the move. Both Portland and Dallas will be looking to move their picks in win now moves. Orlando has two lottery picks that they could look to package together to move up. Indiana and Utah each have three first rounders. Houston is rumored to be shopping their picks to get veteran talent. The question may be, who is even looking to trade for a pick? Maybe there are some surprise teams that pull the plug on their current roster iterations (Portland, Toronto, Chicago). Also, teams without a first round pick who are looking at expensive futures (Milwaukee, Boston, Phoenix) could look into the cost of acquiring a pick in the back end of the first to get some young talent.
Two Things To Keep An Eye On This Offseason
1. A Post-Lottery Cap Space Look
With the draft order set, I’ve update the cap sheets on the site to include the first round pick cap holds. As of now, I currently project seven teams to operate as cap room teams this offseason. The teams and current projected cap space are:
Houston Rockets ~ $59.8 million
San Antonio Spurs ~ $32.8 million
Utah Jazz ~ $31.3 million
Detroit Pistons ~ $31.3 million
Oklahoma City Thunder ~ $29.3 million
Indiana Pacers ~ $26.1
Orlando Magic ~ $22.4 million
Now, cap space is a pretty fluid thing. Decisions will be made on retaining/not retaining bird rights, option years and other factors that will impact the amount of cap space available out there this summer. The numbers above are just my projections given some simple assumptions on options and retention of free agent rights as things currently stand, but as we know teams can make pivotal decisions that flip things very quickly.
2. The Roster Crunch In OKC
The Oklahoma City Thunder currently already have 15 players under contract for the 2023/2024 season, including the 12th pick in the upcoming draft but not including the 37th or 50th pick in the draft. Four of those players, Isaiah Joe, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Aaron Wiggins, and Lindy Waters, are non-guaranteed for the year. Wiggins and Joe are presumably locks to get their deals guaranteed, but let’s assume they waive Robinson-Earl and Waters to free up 2 roster spots. The team is also almost $16 million short of the salary cap floor, which they essentially have to hit by the first day of the season due to the new CBA. There are still a lot of teams that will be deep in the luxury tax, so the team wouldn’t want to miss out on the luxury tax payment by not hitting the floor. If we give the 37th pick in the draft one of the roster spots, that leaves only one spot left. They would have to spend at least ~$14 million on this last roster spot just to hit the salary cap floor. Now, the team can make trades to free up roster spots or bring in players on big contracts to help bring the team up to the floor, but as it stands OKC is facing a but of a roster spot crunch. With 11 of the 15 players either on minimums or rookie scale deals, bringing the team salary over the floor isn’t as easy as it may seem.
Fake Signing Of The Week
Player: James Harden
Team: Houston Rockets
Deal: 4 Years, $201.7 million
There has been quite a bit of smoke around the Harden back to Houston rumors over the season, and it is only now intensifying. Keith Pompey is reporting that Harden is expected to make his return back to the Rockets. For Houston to have any chance of bringing him back, I would assume they will be offering him a four year max deal. Even still, Harden would be giving up ~$9 million if Philly were to also offer a four year max. I’m not sure I entirely understand this move from either party, but I’m sure Harden has his reasons for wanting to return. He will help the Rockets be more competitive next year, but it seems there would be a lot of overlap with the skillsets of Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Kevin Porter Jr. Additionally, that contract could severely cripple the franchise on the back end. For example, that would put Harden at a $51.6 million cap hit in 25/26, the first year of hypothetical new deals for both Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun.