The Waive and Stretch: The Milwaukee Bucks Have No Choice But To Run It Back, Potential Ayton Trades, And More
Welcome back to another edition of The Waive and Stretch Newsletter. A quick shameless plug to note that I am looking to work in basketball in any capacity and would love to connect with anyone in the industry or trying to break in. Please feel free to share this Substack with anyone who might find it interesting. Let's get into it!
What Caught My Attention This Week
The (Near) Future In Milwaukee Will Likely Look Very Familiar
The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off an epic collapse in the playoffs, losing to the eighth seeded Miami Heat in five games. This led to the firing of head coach Mike Budenholzer, despite Bud amassing a 277-120 regular season record and winning the 2021 title during his stint in Milwaukee. Those are some pretty big shoes to fill, though I would expect the Bucks job would be very attractive to all coaching free agents out there (and maybe some under contract as well). It seemed to me as though the Bucks executive and ownership group felt that a shakeup was necessary after this year’s shocking playoff exit, and they probably came to the conclusion that the coaching spot was the easiest route to go as opposed to a roster shakeup.
As for the roster, the team heads into the offseason with some big decisions to make on key personnel. Brook Lopez, Jae Crowder, and Joe Ingles are all unrestricted free agents, and Khris Middleton and Jevon Carter both have player options that they are likely to turn down and also become unrestricted free agents. The team projects to blow past the luxury tax line and will likely be north of both apron lines. Additionally, they are heading into the repeater tax this year. Just running it back next year would result in a very significant financial commitment for the ownership group. The team also may not have any other choice but to run it back. They would have no way of replacing Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez if they were to walk in free agency. Even if they renounced rights on every free agent they had (including Middleton and Carter once they turned down their player options), they would only be able to carve out about ~$19 million in cap space. That’s not happening. It would seem to me that Middleton and Lopez are locks to return and should use that to their advantage in negotiations for new deals. Though, I would not expect either to get new deals that go out longer than Giannis’ player option in 2025/2026 (Lopez can’t due to the over 38 rule). Where I get intrigued is the decisions around the trio of Crowder, Ingles, and Carter. Are the Bucks really going to give up five seconds for Crowder only to let him walk in free agency right after he got there? He did not make a great impression during his short playoff stint with the team but, again, the Bucks don’t really have any way of replacing him or his salary slot. He also plays a position of need for essentially all 30 teams in the league. Both Ingles and Carter showed their value during the regular season but kind of tailed off in the playoffs. They could be seen as a luxury that the team could afford to let go to save money, but can they afford to let talent walk in cost cutting moves in the face of an upcoming Giannis Antetokounmpo extension discussion? Bringing back all three on top of Middleton and Lopez would vault Milwaukee deep into the repeater tax, blowing by both aprons as well, even with conservative numbers.
What could change? Well for one, Milwaukee could try to make a deal or two on the margins. The Bucks could shop guys like Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, and Pat Connaughton. Portis may be a fan favorite, but defensively he can be a liability in the playoffs. Additionally, their is some redundancy in having both Connaughton and Allen on the roster. They all make within that $10-$12 million range and still would have value around the league. Look for the team to try and piece a couple of these guys together in a deal before double apron teams aren’t able to make aggregation trades starting in the 2024 offseason. Aside from that, they are reduced to filling out their roster with vet minimums, as crossing the second apron would take away their Tax MLE.
I just do not see a scenario where the Milwaukee Bucks look significantly different from a roster standpoint next year (barring the nuclear option of trading Giannis which obviously won’t happen). They are a bit pigeonholed at the moment due to a number of things: new CBA, salary cap positioning, commitment to winning etc. They will try to make a couple moves on the margins to try and improve, but ultimately the team looks to be resigned to running it back with a new coach.
Two Things To Keep An Eye On This Offseason
1. The Lottery Results
It feels like this is one of the most consequential lotteries in a long time for a multitude of reasons. The most obvious reason is who gets to secure the talents of Victor Wembanyama, who is potentially the greatest prospect since Lebron James. Winning the lottery could severely alter the future plans of that lucky franchise. Will teams on the record as committing to being competitive next year (e.g. Portland, Houston) still continue down that path if they win the lottery? Or would they immediately reset and start to plan and build around Wembanyama? Additionally, we have some teams sweating pick protections in Dallas and Chicago. Losing those picks would be huge losses in terms of ammo to continue to build around their current rosters. I can’t wait until Tuesday to see just how this monumental lottery plays out.
2. Potential Deandre Ayton Trades
The Suns are coming off another elimination game thrashing, this year coming at the hands of the Denver Nuggets. The team’s lack of depth was a glaring issue throughout the playoffs, having to have Kevin Durant and Devin Booker average over 40 minutes per game just to stay afloat. The new CBA rules have essentially taken a lead pipe to the knees of the Suns front office ability add talent to this current roster. This leads to the only real way to shakeup the roster is via trade, with the two main candidates to be dealt being Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. Both make north of $30 million next year, enough to bring back multiple players back in any deal. Ayton especially looks to be primed to be traded, which is something that would be welcomed by him, according to Tim MacMahon of ESPN. Let’s take a look at some Ayton deals that could make sense for Phoenix.
Charlotte Hornets - Terry Rozier, Nick Richards and Cody Martin, 2023 DEN 1st
Charlotte has Mark Williams and Nick Richards on the roster, but could use a real starting-level big to pair with LaMelo Ball. This would give the Hornets a nice young core of Ball, Ayton, and presumably PJ Washington and Miles Bridges. Meanwhile, Phoenix gets three more rotation players while picking up a first round pick in this year’s draft to pick up some much needed rookie-scale talent.
Dallas Mavericks - Tim Hardaway Jr, Maxi Kleber, JaVale McGee
Dallas bets on Ayton’s pedigree and talent and pairs him with Luka Doncic while getting out of McGee’s contract. Phoenix picks up two proven playoff rotation players to bolster their depth, and bring back McGee who had success in Phoenix.
San Antonio Spurs - Doug McDermott, Zach Collins, 2024 TOR 7-30, future CHI 1st, 2025 ATL
The player return here isn’t great but both McDermott and Collins are serviceable. But this trade is about re-stocking the first round pick cabinet with some juicy assets. Meanwhile the Spurs bring on a talented building block in Ayton as they navigate their rebuild.
I actually had a fairly tough time coming up with Ayton deals. I know the Pacers are the ones that gave him the offer sheet, but after watching this season, is Ayton actually better than Myles Turner? Let alone giving up Turner plus additional assets for him? Maybe the Clippers would be interested and put together a deal centered around Zubac/Batum/Covington. But I’m very interested to see if and when the Suns deal Ayton, what the potential deal will look like.
Fake Signing Of The Week
Player: Khris Middleton
Team: Milwaukee Bucks
Deal: 3 Years, $120 million, Player Option In Third Year
This deal is a fairly significant bump to Middleton’s EPV, but as I stated above, the Bucks don’t have much leverage here and have to bring him back. Additionally, they may face some competition in the market for his services, as the Houston Rockets allegedly have Middleton as a potential free agency target. He faced injuries during this past season, but looked to be back in rhythm in the first round against Miami, averaging 24/6/6. A big wing that can create his own shot efficiently while also creating for others is a player in demand across the Association, and that is what Middleton is. This contract would align Khris with Giannis’ own deal and would take him through age 34 if he opts into that final year. It is effectively tacking on 2 years $80 onto his player option next year, though the Bucks should have him opt out and start the deal at the lowest possible number to preserve repeater tax money.