The Waive and Stretch: The Competing Motivations of the De'Aaron Fox/Spurs Trade Interest
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What Caught My Attention This Week
The Competing Motivations In The De’Aaron Fox Saga
According to Shams Charania, The Sacramento Kings Have Opened Up Trade Talks On De’Aaron Fox, with the San Antonio Spurs the leader in the clubhouse to land Fox in a trade. I am fascinated by the timing of this coming out. It was first reported a week out of the February 6th trade deadline, and virtually came out of nowhere. Sure, Fox didn’t sign an extension last summer, but there were financial reasons not to. But it seems things have come to a head and, per Jake Fischer, the Kings took the initiative in approaching Fox and his Klutch representation about a potential trade, presumably with the knowledge that he was not inclined on signing any extension in Sacramento. I wanted to break down the motivations of a Fox deal for all parties involved.
The Sacramento Kings
It would appear that the Kings have concluded that dealing Fox at this deadline would likely maximize the return value in any deal. But is that the case? Yes, a deadline trade would give Fox’s new team two postseasons with him. But with the Spurs the likely destination, will they even be in playoff contention with Fox? They are currently 12th in the West and 4 games back of the play in. In general, in-season trades are harder to construct than off-season deals as well, limiting potential trade suitors and deal formats. Teams that are not interested currently (Houston, OKC) could get involved in the summer after disappointing playoff runs. On the flip side, Fox is currently the biggest fish in the trade market pond. Who knows what players could become available this summer and re-set the trade market hierarchy (Giannis Antetokounmpo?). The Kings have to weigh all this and make a judgement call on when the iron will be hottest to strike on a Fox trade.
The question is, what is Sacramento prioritizing in a return? Even though it may make the most sense to hit the full reset button and unload the rest of the roster, I’d imagine the Kings are looking at bringing win-now players back in any deal. Which likely means that any Spurs/Kings deal might include more teams that can supply the Kings with said win-now players. Either way, if I’m Sacramento I’m not doing any deal with San Antonio before the deadline that doesn’t bring back Stephon Castle and their 2031 swap back. If the Spurs won’t include both of those, then I’m just holding onto Fox and taking my chances this summer. They still have leverage with another year left on his deal and the potential of other teams entering the fray. There is also the chance that Fox makes All-NBA this year, thus making him Supermax eligible and greatly improving the odds of extending in Sacramento.
De’Aaron Fox and Klutch Sports
While the timing of this news wasn’t necessarily driven by Fox and Klutch Sports, they do have a financial rooting interest in getting him traded before this year’s deadline. The below table spells out just how much he can make on a new team if he is traded and if that team has the ability to re-negotiate and extend him next summer like the Spurs would. Please note that all Total Money and Year amounts are inclusive of Fox’s $37.1 million deal in 2025/2026.
As you can see, there is an $18.5 million dollar difference in new money between Fox signing outright with San Antonio in free agency in 2026, or getting traded there and re-negotiating his 2025/2026 amount up to the 30% max ( an additional ~$9 million) with the Spurs cap space and extending off of that. Another wrinkle on the re-negotiation is that the Spurs could essentially only do it if they traded for him before Thursday’s deadline, as you have to wait six months before re-negotiating a player you traded for. That would mean that if it was a June deal, that they would have to save $9 million in cap space up until next January, something a team that would be looking to compete for a playoff spot can’t really afford. So if De’Aaron Fox and his Klutch representation want to make the most money they possibly can, they would get traded to San Antonio before this deadline ends.
From a competitive standpoint, Fox welcoming a trade to San Antonio makes sense. Any player looking to compete for championships in the future (and improve their market value) should be looking to pair up with Victor Wembanyama. Even after a presumed trade for Fox, the Spurs would still have plenty of draft assets and cap flexibility to make more moves in the future to add talent around that pairing.
The San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have a good problem in that Victor Wembanyama has shortened their re-building window considerably with how well he’s been playing. The next step is to add some real talent around him, and it appears that this Fox situation has happened at just the right time for San Antonio (perhaps not coincidentally). Wembanyama is still on his rookie contract and the team has sizable contracts that they can move in a deal that wouldn’t have a meaningful impact on the long-term trajectory of the team. As previously mentioned, any Fox deal should still leave considerable draft assets in the cupboard for future moves as well.
The question is, is San Antonio comfortable including Stephon Castle in a deal for Fox? I just don’t see the Kings doing it before the deadline without Castle being included. Do the Spurs draw a hard line and take it to the summer, with the chance that they turn off Fox and Klutch by not dealing for him now and thus all but eliminating the re-negotiation and extend option and potentially inviting more teams to enter the fray (OKC, Houston)?
My Compromise
Here is what I think makes the most sense for all parties and the deal I would make before the February 6th trade deadline.
San Antonio Spurs Receive: De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Simone Fontecchio
Sacramento Kings Receive: Stephon Castle, Tre Jones, Zach Collins, 2031 SAC swap returned, 2025 CHI 1st (Top 10 protected), 2025 1st swap (right to swap for worse of ATL and SAS)
Detroit Pistons Receive: Harrison Barnes, 2025 SAC 2nd (Top 55 protected), 2026 NOP 2nd
Kings make out with Castle, get back their 2031 swap and bag another first and swap. Tre Jones could serve as a table-setting point guard to play out the rest of this year, but ultimately this would be the first step in a re-build. They also get off Huerter but take on Collins, who will be expiring next year.
The Spurs land Fox and take on Huerter from the Kings. They also have to move out Harrison Barnes for salary matching purposes, and since he can’t go back to Sacramento, the Pistons swoop in and take him, sending Fontecchio back to San Antonio. This leaves the Spurs with 8 tradeable firsts going forward to make even more moves.
The Pistons are able to land a good 2nd and Harrison Barnes, who has played well this year and should help out in Detroit.