The Waive and Stretch: The Chris Paul Trade, Draft Day Activity, Naz Reid Extends, Cap Space Update And More
Welcome back to another edition of The Waive and Stretch Newsletter. A quick shameless plug to note that I am looking to work in basketball in any capacity and would love to connect with anyone in the industry or trying to break in. Please feel free to share this Substack with anyone who might find it interesting. Let's get into it!
What Caught My Attention This Week
Warriors Make Deal For Chris Paul
I was fairly shocked when it was reported that the Golden State Warriors and Washington Wizards had reached a deal that sent Chris Paul to the Warriors in exchange for Jordan Poole, Ryan Rollins, Patrick Baldwin Jr, a protected 2030 first round pick, and a 2027 second round pick. I cannot get over the price it took for the Warriors to essentially dump the salary of Poole, before his 4 year, $123 million rookie-scale extension even kicks in. A protected first, a second and last year’s first round selection seems steep to simply dump the contract of someone who was supposed to be the face of the next generation of Warriors for a guy who is 38. Chris Paul can still be a very good player, but ultimately the Warriors will likely only have him on the roster for one year, with it probable they waive his non-guaranteed deal of $30 million in 2024/2025 in an effort to get under the second apron. Though, the Warriors could use Paul's non-guaranteed deal in 24/25 as a trade chip, only guaranteeing however much is needed to facilitate a trade.
It would seem that the new CBA changed the calculus a bit on Golden State, and they felt that they had to make a hard decision around cutting down future money owed. It would also seem to imply that the Warriors are planning on bringing back Draymond Green on a multiple year deal and going all in on the current core of Steph/Klay/Draymond. The Two Timeline Approach may be dead, and we will see if they try to flip guys like Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga in win-now deals. This trade provides a light at the end of the tunnel for the Warriors from a salary cap perspective now, however. They should be under the second apron starting in 2024/2025, with Chris Paul’s non-guaranteed amount and Klay Thompson’s max rolling off the books.
As for Washington, extracting Jordan Poole plus draft assets for Chris Paul is an absolute win. Being able to get: Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Patrick Baldwin Jr, a protected first, eight second rounders, and four pick swaps for Bradley Beal on a supermax deal with a no trade clause and Kristaps Porizingis, who could have opted out and left in free agency for nothing, is highly impressive. The team is obviously headed for a a re-build and is off to a good start.
Naz Reid Agrees To 3 Year, $42 million Extension
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Naz Reid have agreed to a 3 year $42 million extension, with a player option in the third year. Reid was still extension eligible through June 30th. This seemed to be a priority for the Wolves, as Reid was going to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. I love this deal for Reid, as he’s able to lock in life-changing money after having made relatively little in his career so far, but was able to maintain flexibility with the 2+1 structure of the contract. This deal comes in fairly similar to what the full Non-Tax MLE would have been this summer. He can continue to kill it on his new deal and get back on the market at age 26. This slots him as one of the highest paid backup big men in the League, and surpasses the deal I had him forecasted at here. As for the Wolves, the team must’ve feared a cap space team coming in and offering $15+ million annually. Regardless, they lock in Reid for at least two years to back up the Gobert/Towns frontcourt. Things could get hairy salary cap wise in 24/25, though, when extensions kick in for Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, as I explained in a prior newsletter.
Three Things To Keep An Eye On This Offseason
1. The Fallout From The Draft Trades
The NBA draft was relatively quiet from a trade perspective. There were two teams that made deals that had cap space implications and piqued my interest, however. Let’s take a look at what these teams did and what it projects.
Dallas Mavericks Dump And Take On Salary
The Mavericks made two consequential deals during the draft. First, they dealt the number 10 pick and Davis Bertans to Oklahoma City for the number 12 pick. Essentially, the Mavs were able to dump the $22 million guaranteed left on Bertans deal and only dropped two spots in the draft, while creating a $17 million trade exception. That was impressive. They then turned around and immediately used that trade exception to take in Richaun Holmes from the Sacramento Kings along with the 24th pick in the draft as payment. They still have ~$5 million left in the trade exception, and could potentially use the full Non-Tax MLE, depending on how much Kyrie comes back for.Sacramento Kings Carve Out Real Cap Space
On the flip side of the Holmes deal, the Kings dumping the 2 years, $25 million left on his deal without taking any money back signals their intention to be a player in free agency this summer. With Holmes off the books, the Kings can create up to ~ $35 million in cap space, though that would come at the cost of Harrison Barnes. That makes them a significant player in free agency. Some names to monitor for the Kings include Jerami Grant, Cam Johnson, Grant Williams, and PJ Washington.
2. An Updated Look At The Cap Space Teams
With the Draft over with, it is a good time to re-visit the cap space landscape this summer, as there have been some significant changes. Here’s how I project the cap space teams for this offseason.
Houston Rockets ~ $61.7 million in space
Sacramento Kings ~ $35.7 million in space
San Antonio Spurs ~ $34.6 million in space
Indiana Pacers ~ $30.9 million in space
Detroit Pistons ~ $30.4 million in space
Washington Wizards ~ $24.5 million in space
Orlando Magic ~ $24.2 million in space
Utah Jazz ~ $14.3 million in space (Clarkson, THT, Gay opt in/post John Collins Trade)
Oklahoma City Thunder ~ $13.8 million in space
Important to note that cap space is relatively fluid and a lot of decisions will be made between now and free agency that could impact these significantly.
3. Summer League
It is almost that time of the year again! Just wanted to note here that I will be in Las Vegas for Summer League and would love to connect with those of you who subscribe to the Substack while out there. Feel free to shoot me an email at thoreson.nichola@gmail.com if you will be in the gym in Vegas, I would love to catch up and talk free agency/next season.
Fake Signing Of The Week
Player: Draymond Green
Team: Golden State Warriors
Deal: 4 Years, $100 million
With the Warriors sending out Jordan Poole for Chris Paul, the team is going all in on this current core. This means that the team is likely to bring back Green on a multi-year deal, as they really can’t afford to let him walk. This gives the team a lower cap hit next year as opposed to the player option he turned down, but locks in long-term money for Green.