The Waive and Stretch: Rumor Mill Heating Up, Player/Team Option Tells, Salary Dumping Season, And More
Welcome back to another edition of The Waive and Stretch Newsletter. A quick shameless plug to note that I am looking to work in basketball in any capacity and would love to connect with anyone in the industry or trying to break in. Please feel free to share this Substack with anyone who might find it interesting. Let's get into it!
What Caught My Attention This Week
The Rumor Mill Is Heating Up
With the Denver Nuggets crowned the 2023 NBA Champions, we are now fully headed towards the offseason. With less than one week to go until the draft and two until free agency, the rumor mill has really started to heat up. I wanted to dive into the two major rumors making the rounds and flesh out just how realistic I find them to be.
The Washington Wizards Are Exploring Bradley Beal Trades
Both ESPN and The Athletic put out fairly vague reports on the idea that the Wizards would work with Beal and his representation on finding a new home with a contender for Beal, if the franchise were to decide on entering a rebuild. With new management that was given full autonomy on basketball decision making, this rumor makes sense. It seems as though the reporting still tries to maintain the facade that the Wizards could keep trying to compete with the current roster, but it seems very clear to me that Washington is going to be actively trying to deal Beal and reset the roster. Beal’s supermax deal and no trade clause are two pretty massive obstacles to overcome when finding a trade partner, but he’s still a very talented player and there should be enough talent-hungry teams out there to drive up the price somewhat on any trade. The teams mentioned most as a potential landing spot for Beal are the Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Sacramento Kings, and Philadelphia 76ers. The Heat seem to make the most sense, with something centered around Tyler Herro going back to Washington.
The Zion Williamson/Brandon Ingram/Scoot Henderson Smoke
There’s been a lot of vague reporting all pretty much centering around the New Orleans Pelicans interest in drafting Scoot Henderson. This has led to thinking that the Pelicans would be willing to trade Brandon Ingram or Zion Williamson in a deal to acquire the 2nd overall pick from Charlotte to draft Henderson, though there’s been no reporting confirming that. I can’t see the Pelicans sending out Williamson, despite his difficulties with injuries throughout his early career. He’s been too dominant when on the court for the team. Ingram could make more sense, but even that is quite a large bet on a young Henderson. The team does have some difficulty coming up with the new CBA cap changes, but they have other, less nuclear levels they can pull to help alleviate those potential issues. Despite all the chatter around the teams interest, I can’t see them actually moving Williamson or Ingram, and I can’t see Charlotte moving the pick without one of those two players.
Two Things To Keep An Eye On This Offseason
1. Player/Team Option Tells
Before we get to free agency, there are some key players/teams out there that need to make decisions on player/team options for next year. Some of them need to make the decision before the draft and some after. Regardless, these decisions could provide insight as to other decisions that could be made later in the offseason.
Khris Middleton, player option: If Middleton were to opt in, that could forecast a potential Bradley Beal trade, as the Milwaukee Bucks are reportedly in the running for a Beal deal. Though, I don’t know why Middleton would opt in only to get traded, unless Washington agreed to tack on another $40+ million in a one year extension, which is probably more than he would get in the open market this offseason.
Derrick Rose, team option: The New York Knicks are all but guaranteed to decline the option for Rose’s contract of $15 million. However, if they were to opt in, that could be a tell that they have a trade lined up and are using Rose as salary ballast.
Malik Beasley, team option: The Lakers decision around Beasley’s team option could ultimately end up alluding to their free agency plans. They could pick up the option and use him as salary fodder in any trade. Or they could decline it to clear room under the tax/aprons.
Josh Hart, player option: Another New York Knick here, Hart has a player option for ~$13 million. There’s been speculation that Hart’s value is right around that $18 million mark, which is where EPV has him as well, with a 4 years, $72 million a real possibility. Hart could opt out and agree to that deal with the Knicks, or he could opt in and max extend for three additional years, which would also get him just about to that $72 million number over four years due to the new extension rules CBA change. Opting in and extending could help the Knicks preserve space under the tax/aprons.
2. Salary Dumping Season?
With a clear picture on the new restrictions brought on by deeper spending into the luxury tax with the new CBA, there are going to be teams looking to shed salary for a multitude of reasons. Let’s take a look at the teams who may be most anxious to dump salary and why.
Miami Heat: A team coming off a run to the Finals wouldn’t normally be a team looking to dump salary. But the Heat are already up against the second apron and that is before any new deal for Max Strus or Gabe Vincent. I’m willing to bet the team is already looking at ways to dump guys like Victor Oladipo, Duncan Robinson, or Kyle Lowry.
Brooklyn Nets: As things stand, a new deal for Cameron Johnson will put the Nets into the luxury tax and possibly past the first apron. Given the team is in a semi-rebuild and not in any real place to contend, I would think they are exploring their options of dumping guys like Joe Harris, Patty Mills (back to the Spurs?), or Ben Simmons (good luck) in money clearing deals to stay under the tax line.
Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks are already projected to be past the first apron this year. They also have to be wary of their future finances, with Dejounte Murray, Saddiq Bey, and Onyeka Okongwu up for extensions this summer. Conservative deals for all three would easily put them past the second apron in 2024/2025. They basically have to shed some salary, with John Collins being the likeliest candidate to get moved.
Fake Signing Of The Week
Player: Josh Hart
Team: New York Knicks
Deal: 4 Years, $72 million
As discussed previously, Hart could get to this number either by opting out and re-signing as a free agent or opting in and extending under the new 140% max extension number. Hart proved to be a key rotation piece for the Knicks after being traded to New York from Portland, and quickly became a favorite of Tom Thibodeau. While this deal could look a bit expensive at first, it could prove to be cheap by the end in a rising cap environment.