The Waive and Stretch: Rookie Scale Team Options, Conversion Watch: Daniss Jenkins, Onyeka Okongwu Letting It Fly, And Jalen Suggs Headband Ritual
Welcome back to another edition of The Waive and Stretch Newsletter. A quick shameless plug to note that I am looking to work in basketball in any capacity and would love to connect with anyone in the industry or trying to break in. Please feel free to share this with anyone who you think might find it interesting. Let’s get into it!
What Caught My Attention This Week
The Rookie Scale Team Option Decisions
I’ve always thought it was kind of weird that the deadline for rookie scale team option decisions for next year was October 31st and during the season, instead of the beginning of the season like the deadline for other transactions. Regardless, that day has come and past without too many surprises.
We saw the fourth year option declined for the following players from the 2023-2024 draft class: Jett Howard, Kobe Bufkin, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Dariq Whitehead, Olivier- Maxence Prosper, Nick Smith Jr, and Kobe Brown. Seven players in total. I was curious to see if we are seeing an uptick in fourth year declines in this apron era, so I looked back through the last ten draft classes to get to their fourth year option decision to see how they stacked up.
We have seen a slight increase over the last two years in total fourth year declines, and I think its something that teams should probably be more proactive on going forward. Based on the rookie scale contracts set by the CBA, that fourth year can be anywhere from a 26% to 81%(!) increase over the third year salary. Jett Howard was set to make $7.3 million next season on a team that is already over the first apron next season. They couldn’t really afford to pick up that team option, and instead welcomed the risk of Howard outplaying that valuation this season, with the team unable to pay him more than the turned-down team option amount. I look at a guy like Marcus Sasser, who had his $5.2 million option guaranteed for next year and may have already lost his job to a breaking out Daniss Jenkins (More on him below). Detroit could conceivably have significant cap space aspirations next summer, but would now have to probably incentivize someone to take on Sasser’s contract if they would want to clear more space. They could have turned down that option to preserve cap space flexibility while still maintaining the ability to keep Sasser around, albeit at the risk of him getting an offer that the Pistons couldn’t match. It’s exactly what we saw the Clippers, who could also have significant cap space, do when they turned down Kobe Brown’s $4.8 million option. It is a risk-reward analysis that teams have generally leaned conservatively historically.
Three Things To Keep Your Eye On
1. Conversion Watch: Daniss Jenkins
The Pistons have found a gem in two-way player Daniss Jenkins. Over his last five games, Jenkins is averaging 20.2 points and 7.8 assists per game on 58.4% true shooting while maintaining a 22.4% usage. He’s been relentless attacking the paint whether to score himself or assist a teammate. Over that same five game stretch, he’s averaged 14.4 drives per game, good for 14th in the league during that stretch.
Detroit may have a good problem on their hands. Their recent waiver claim of Isaac Jones does not leave them with a roster spot to convert Jenkins’ two way to a standard, multi-year deal. They could end up waiving Jones to open up that spot, or they could just wait until later in the season to see if they free up any roster spots in future trades. With no MLE money left, the Pistons do not have the ability to offer Jenkins a deal longer than two years, but we would likely see a two year deal with a team option in the second year team option that can be turned down to negotiate a new, long term deal in the summer, a la Ajay Mitchell. Detroit does still have access to the BAE, so they could give him a bump this year in the conversion if they needed to.
2. Onyeka Okongwu Getting Up Threes And Making Them
Onyeka Okongwu is taking a career-high 4.6 threes per game putting him in the 76th percentile in three point frequency among bigs per Cleaning The Glass. That is more than double his previous high of two per game last year. He’s making a lot of them as well, hitting them at a 40.6% clip! Okongwu made eight of them in a 32 point effort against the Utah Jazz. He has quietly become a real pick and pop threat, and teams are starting to notice. Take a look at the below clip from their recent game against the Pistons.
Most centers set that pick and Jalen Duren leaves them out there to keep Alexander-Walker from getting to the rim. But Okongwu is 4/7 from three at this point, and Duren doesn’t want to give him another open look. This could be a huge development for Okongwu and the Hawks. It gives them yet another shooting threat at the five spot when Porzingis is out and helps maintaining their spacing for their guards/wings to attack the paint.
3. Jalen Suggs Headband Ritual
Something funny has caught my eye when watching Orlando Magic games. Jalen Suggs starts off the game with his headband around his neck instead of his head, sometimes not putting around his head until a possession or two into the game.
Estimate Player Value (EPV) Updates
Current Year Top Ten
Life Of Contract Top Ten
