The Waive and Stretch: Nets Continue The Fire Sale, The Upcoming Guarantee Deadline, And More
Welcome back to another edition of The Waive and Stretch Newsletter. A quick shameless plug to note that I am looking to work in basketball in any capacity and would love to connect with anyone in the industry or trying to break in. Please feel free to share this with anyone who you think might find it interesting. Let's get into it!
What Caught My Attention This Week
The Nets Continue The Fire Sale In Lakers Deal
We have another Brooklyn Nets trade! The full details:
Brooklyn Nets Receive: D’Angelo Russell, Maxwell Lewis, LAL 2027 2nd, LAL 2030 2nd, LAL 2031 2nd
Los Angeles Lakers Receive: Dorian Finney-Smith, Shake Milton
First the financials of the deal. This leaves the Lakers with more space under the second apron (~$3.5 million below) and a new tax bill of ~$42 million. This deal did push the Lakers ~$6 million into the luxury tax for 2025-2026 with 11 players under contract.
The Nets now sit about $677k below the luxury tax. This severely limits their ability to strike more trades this season, unless they are willing to dip into the tax and forego the ~$18 million luxury tax distribution (highly unlikely). If they aren’t willing to do that, then they are essentially locked into doing dollar for dollar deals just like all the other apron teams, or dumping a salary to clear more luxury tax breathing room. Something to keep an eye on as teams continue to make calls on Cam Johnson. They also sit at a full 15 roster spots so they can’t take back more players than they send out unless they waive a player. I would keep an eye on the non-guaranteed deal of Keon Johnson as we approach January 7th. Despite being in the rotation for Brooklyn, the addition of D’Angelo Russell and the open roster spot/more luxury tax breathing room might be too much for him to hang on the roster.
Before this deal went down, there was a lot of chatter about the Nets and Grizzlies discussing a trade with DFS heading to Memphis. And subsequently after the Nets decided to do the Lakers deal, Michael Scotto reported that the Grizzlies did offer their own top 15 protected 2025 1st.
With the Nets already holding four 1sts in 2025, it seemed they just preferred to take on the expiring of Russell and bag multiple future LAL 2nds.
The Nets can now carve out even more cap space next summer. Realistically, I would peg them right around a max of around $70 million or so after draft pick cap holds, but I would say they will operate at around $55 million while holding onto the cap holds for Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe. Are they going to use all that cap space in new signings? I’d bet no. They will bring back some of their guys (keep an eye on Ziaire Williams), and be a dumping ground for teams looking to clear money (Houston/Jimmy Butler?). But, they have a ton of flexibility this offseason. I would be prepared to hear about the Nets being interested in x free agent (who happens to be looking for more than MLE money) a lot this offseason.
The January 7th Guarantee Deadline
After January 7th, any contracts that are still non-guaranteed will become fully guaranteed. By my count, there are still 20 contracts that aren’t fully guaranteed remaining across the league, which seems like a high number to me. I recently wrote about how teams are using these non-guaranteed deals similar to ten-day contracts, where they can churn roster spots without taking full season dead cap hits. We’ve already seen nine of these deals waived mid-season, with most recently the Timberwolves waiving PJ Dozier.
Looking at these twenty decisions that need to be made, most seem like relative no brainers, though some could be a bit tricky. Here’s how I group the deadline decisions that need to be made.
The Obvious Guarantees: Jalen Wilson (BRK), Sam Merrill (CLE), Craig Porter Jr (CLE), Andre Jackson Jr (MIL), Jaylin Williams (OKC), Dalano Banton (POR), Landry Shamet (NYK)
Nothing too much to say here, barring anything crazy I’m going to go ahead and say all these guys will make it past the guarantee date unscathed.
More Likely Than Not You Will Be Guaranteed: Ricky Council (PHI), Gui Santos (GSW), Bruno Fernando (TOR), Tristan Thompson (CLE)
Think these four are all likely to make it past the deadline, as Philly and Golden State already have an open roster spot. Toronto is likely to shop the other centers on the roster and Cleveland needs the center depth.
We May Prefer The Roster Spot And Tax Room: Keon Johnson (BRK), Taj Gibson (CHA), Talen Horton-Tucker (CHI), Markieff Morris (DAL), James Wiseman (IND)
Think this group should be relatively worried about the deadline. As I mentioned previously with Keon Johnson, all these teams could want to preserve an open roster spot for trades (whether buyer or seller)/buyouts and/or tax space/savings.
At Least One Of You Isn’t Staying In Sacramento: Doug McDermott (SAC), Orlando Robinson (SAC), Jae Crowder (SAC)
The Kings still have three players on non-guaranteed deals. I am willing to bet at least one of these three won’t make it past January 7th. Kings seem to be in desperation mode and will likely be active in the trade/buyout markets. They also don’t have a lot of wiggle room below the tax, so any extra space there would help.
Your Spot Belongs To Someone Else: Branden Carlson (OKC)
It just seems like the Thunder are going to end up using this roster spot to convert Ajay Mitchell to a standard deal, so I’d have to imagine Carlson doesn’t make it through the deadline.
Fake Trade of the Week
Memphis Grizzlies Receive: Jae’Sean Tate
Orlando Magic Receive: Luke Kennard
A straight up swap here. Grizzlies can still add some toughness at the 3/4 that they were looking for in Finney-Smith with the addition of Tate, who is just buried behind Houston’s depth at the position. Meanwhile, Kennard can bring some much needed shooting to Houston, a team who is 28th in three point shooting accuracy. Both players are on expiring deals and both teams could create new TPEs in the deal. This would require Kennard to waive his implicit no trade, which he is seemingly willing to do considering the negotiations between Memphis and Brooklyn.
Estimate Player Value Updates
Current Year Top Ten
Life of Contract(s) Top Ten
