The Waive and Stretch: Decision Time In Portland, More CBA Updates, Wizards Need A New GM, And More
Welcome back to another edition of The Waive and Stretch Newsletter. Apologies for the lateness between posts, as the day job and the playoffs have been kicking my butt a bit recently. A quick shameless plug to note that I am looking to work in basketball in any capacity and would love to connect with anyone in the industry or trying to break in. Please feel free to share this Substack with anyone who might find it interesting. Let's get into it!
What Caught My Attention This Week
Portland Has To Stop Splitting The Difference
The Portland Trail Blazers pulled off another brazen tank job post All-Star Break, going 5-19 in that stretch to win the heated race to the fifth spot in the lottery standings that I had touched on in a prior newsletter. This comes after going 2-21 post All-Star Break last year. Damian Lillard has essentially come out and said he wants the franchise to make a decision on the future, one way or another. Either go all in and make moves to bring in veteran talent, or go the rebuild route, which implies trading him. Portland has tiptoed the line in recent years, trading for Jerami Grant and re-signing Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons, while drafting Shaedon Sharpe and trading Josh Hart for a 1st round draft pick. With another high lottery pick this year, it would seem what they do with that pick signals the direction of the franchise. However, we will have to see how the lottery shakes out, as the Blazers do have 10.5% chance of winning the Wembanyama sweepstakes. The team has key free agents in Jerami Grant, Matisse Thybulle, Cam Reddish, and Drew Eubanks. If they wanted to bring back all four, they could already be flirting with the luxury tax. The only, real way they can add the type of talent required to make a leap as a contender next year would require them unloading their lottery pick or Sharpe in a trade (or both). I will be keeping my eye on the Blazers offseason to see what direction they head.
Two More Things That Caught My Eye
1. More CBA Updates
There have been more and more reports coming out on the changes taking place in the new CBA. Here are a couple more that are intriguing that I did not touch on last time.
Teams under the minimum salary floor (90% of cap) on first day of season will not receive a luxury tax distribution.
This basically ensures that all teams actually spend up to the salary floor in the offseason, instead of rolling a large amount of cap space into the season and either taking on salary via trade, doing a re-negotiation, or just making a payment to their players at the end of the year. This likely ends scenarios like we saw the Indiana Pacers and San Antonio Spurs found themselves in last year, where they carried near max cap space deep into the season. The teams most impacted by this rule could sneakily be the double aproned teams. I speculated in the last newsletter that we might see an increase in three team deals where one team just hoards cap space into the season and serves as a dumping ground because double aproned teams can’t take back more money than what they send out. Well, so much for that.
Second Round Pick Exception
This new exception gives teams the ability to sign their second round picks to contracts longer than 2 years without having to dig into their other exceptions. The exception allegedly provides for two different structures.
1) Three year deal including a team option with a first year salary up to the minimum of a player with 1 year of service
2) Four year deal including a team option with first-and second-year salaries up to the minimum for a player with two years of experience.
This ensures that teams will be able to gain bird rights on their second round picks without the hassle of dipping into the MLE. I will be interested to see if this exception can be used non-drafted, converted two-ways, etc. or if its only for signing second round picks when drafted. Additionally, second rounders will not count against the salary cap until July 31st, which helps with teams avoiding signing their second round picks to preserve cap space, thus the players missing time in Summer League.
Changes to the Room, Mid-Level Exceptions
The new CBA also made changes to the existing exceptions, which followed the trend of helping smaller spenders and punishing big spenders. The Room Exception was increased 30% and can be used to sign contracts up to 3 years, the Non-Taxpayer MLE was increased 7.5% and can be used as a trade exception or for claiming on waivers, and the Taxpayer MLE was limited to contracts up to 2 years. Giving teams the option to use their NTMLE as a trade exception seems big to me, it really gives teams more flexibility to add rotation-level talent.
Extensions can start at less than player option amount when turned down
In the last newsletter, I talked about how the Wizards may want to wait until free agency to re-sign Kristaps Porzingis to preserve cap space, as they would have had to start any extension at the player option amount that he has for next year. Well, in the new CBA, this won’t be an issue anymore, as players that have turned down player options can start an extension at a number less than what the option amount is. So, if a team and player can come to an agreement on a total $ amount of a number of years, this gives the team more flexibility around the structure of the contract. So, let’s take the same hypothetical Porzingis discussion. If we take the same “minimum” extension under the current rules, 4 years, $126.7 million, and apply the it to the new CBA rules, the Wizards could preserve an additional $8 million in space under the tax just from structuring the contract differently.
2. Wizards Dismiss Tommy Sheppard
According to Adrian Wojnarowski, the Washington Wizards have fired general manager Tommy Sheppard, who had been the gm since the 2018-19 season. This comes after the team had failed to reach the playoffs two years in a row, and hadn’t had a winning record since the 2017-18 season. The new general manager has their work cut out for them immediately once they take on the role. Here is a look at what they inherit day one:
Bradley Beal’s 4 years, $207 million remaining on his contract, including a no trade clause
Key (probable) free agents in Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma
Extension-eligible Deni Avdija
A team that does not project to have cap space for the foreseeable future
The 8th spot in the lottery standings for the upcoming draft
It would seem before he was relieved of duties that Sheppard was on track to re-sign Kuzma and Porzingis and run it back in pursuit of the playoffs next year. I’m not sure if his firing does anything to shake up this plan however, as owner Ted Leonsis seems dead set on making the playoffs. Running it back with Porzingis and Kuzma as well as adding a top ten pick already projects the team to be up near the luxury tax line with not a lot of room to add more talent to this roster. It could take some real creativity by an incoming front office to try and get this team into the playoffs next year.
Fake Signing Of The Week
Player: Jerami Grant
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Deal: 5 Years, $160 million
Jerami Grant essentially turned down a 4 year, $112 million extension offer from the Blazers during the season and smartly so. He enjoyed a career year, averaging 20.5 points and 4.5 rebounds per game on 60.6% True Shooting. He could end up being the belle of the ball of free agency, as the other big name free agents are older and project to re-sign with their current teams. Portland is also backed into a corner here, with recent comments made by GM Joe Cronin and Damian Lillard on wanting to start winning games and being competitive. Grant and his representatives should take advantage and ask for the fifth year that other teams can’t offer. This comes in considerably higher than where my EPV has him, but having the Bird Rights Trap and other cap space teams looking to improve should help inflate Grant’s next contract considerably.